What to make of the new bin Laden tape?

[mithriltabby]

Conservative pundits are trumpeting the new bin Laden tape as an endorsement of Kerry. (After touting that his silence was an endorsement of Kerry.) What are they smoking?

Osama bin Laden may be an evil murdering terrorist mastermind, but he’s not stupid. It’s quite clear from the polls in America that Bush’s popularity goes up every time Americans feel threatened. He’s going to know that if he sends a message taunting America, that is likely to boost Bush.

Why would he do such a thing?

Bush has been called “al-Qaeda’s best recruiting sergeant”. Let’s look at the numbers: 100,000 dead Iraqis— not faceless individuals, not soldiers who put their lives on the line, but civilian men, women and children. Suppose each dead person has just one surviving relative who’s angry enough to want revenge on the United States. Suppose that 1% of those angry people are angry enough to join a terrorist group because it’s the only way to get their revenge. Do the math: that’s 1000 new suicide bombers and airplane pilots, delivered to Osama bin Laden with a big red bow wrapped around them along with a partridge in a pear tree, courtesy of George W Bush. The real math will look different, of course, but you can see how it works.

Four more years of Bush is four more years of aid and comfort to al-Qaeda.

John Kerry, on the other hand, went after the Iran-Contra affair. He might actually do something effective against al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden does not want John Kerry elected President of the United States, so he’s doing his best to help Bush.

I’m voting for John Kerry.

Comments

[cmccurry.livejournal.com]

Why would he do such a thing?

I doubt that Osama has been on good terms with reality for quite a while. This is a man who views this whole thing as a holy war; taunting the enemy is just a part of it.

[mithriltabby]

The viewpoint of a holy war doesn’t preclude him from making sound strategic decisions. Metaphorically, I think he’s like a rabid dog that needs to be put down, but tactically, I think we need to treat him as sane and dangerous.

[trogula.livejournal.com]

You make two mistakes here.

1 - Never underestimate the ability of your enemy to plan and execute in a logical and cunning manner. Stated rhetoric by a leader is rarely the only reason for the group's actions.

2 - Never overestimate your own ability to plan and execute in a logical and cunning manner. The "Holy War" metaphor is being used by both sides.

I will be voting for Kerry myself, in part because I think Bush cannot be effective against OBL. Bush and OBL are like two symbiotes - each needs the other in order to survive.