Dispatches from the Eccentric Frontier

The recent FDA approval of cloned meat has been in the news lately. I reached for the bag of rock salt I keep handy for anything that originates from a government and claims to possess scientific rigor and took a look at their risk assessment.

In principle, there’s nothing wrong with cloned meat— a true clone would be identical to its original and pose identical risks. The problem is that cloning is error-prone, and there’s still a lot we don’t know about cellular biology. Even if they’re getting all the chromosomes duplicated properly, what about DNA methylation and microRNA? The FDA release has a Risk Assessment section that does discuss the risks of epigenetic changes, which mentions methylation but not microRNA; their conclusion is that “Progeny of animal clones, on the other hand, are not anticipated to pose food safety concerns, as natural mating resulting from the production of new gametes by the clones is expected to reset even those residual epigenetic reprogramming errors that could persist in healthy, reproducing clones. Thus any anomalies present in clones are not expected to be transmitted to their progeny.”

So what I see here is a lot of informed expectation and a few animal trials that have promising initial results. Since we’re still learning about these subtleties of genetics, I’d rather hold off on cloned meat for a few years while it gets further scrutiny. Once we have the science down, I will be delighted to enjoy tasty, tasty filet mignon that was created on a tissue printer from cell lines cloned from a cow you can feed in a petting zoo, along with fresh sourdough made from grain grown in a vertical farm. I’d rather have cloned meat labeled as such; as The Economist suggests, if it’s that good, being cloned should be a badge of quality.

When CPU horsepower drastically outstrips available bandwidth, there will be a lot of ways to compress connections. I expect one of them will be optimized for the most important data in video communication: the nuances of the human face. We’ve already spent decades working on a very low-bandwidth representation of that, in the form of cartoons. Once there’s demand for low-bandwidth video connections, I expect we’ll see “toon filters” that operate by identifying the important details of the human face and transmitting just the changes in those parameters over the wire (after an initial setup).

And once you can send a cartoon of your own face, it should be possible to send any other cartoon you want. Disney may even license their trademark characters so people can make calls as anyone from the Cheshire Cat to Maleficent. (Though that may get nixed as soon as someone brings up the possibility of getting an obscene phone call from the Little Mermaid.) More exaggerated cartoony features may even be easier to read on small screens than normal human proportions.

It is ... clear that, so far, the industry has not taken changing catastrophe trends seriously enough. Climate change is likely to bring us all an even more uncertain future. If we do not take action now to understand the risks and their impact, the changing climate could kill us.

Insurers need to consider the impact that an unstable climate could have on global asset values, which may generate a mismatch against insurance liabilities. Asset values tend to react to new information as soon as it is known, and adjust accordingly even if the effects are likely to take effect some time in the future.

1. Insurers rely on returns from assets to boost financial performance. If these returns reduce, whether gradually or suddenly, then insurer profits will be lower. Consequently, it will become even more important for insurers to price risk according to exposure, and to underwrite for profit, without reliance on investment income.
2. The global financial services industry holds a significant proportion of the world’s financial assets. Insurance industry participants can therefore make a difference by using their influence as investors to encourage “climate proof” behaviour from the boards of large corporations.
3. In addition to economic disruption from unstable climate, political unrest may result from competition for water and other resources, forcing demographic changes. Policies in respect of political and terrorism risks should be reviewed regularly to ensure the level of risk is within appetite.

Consider: if you need expertise, and the experts are reluctant to show up in a violent area, it may become cheaper to provide telepresence than it would be to provide enough security to make them feel safe, or enough hazard pay to make them willing to take the risk.

Telepresence requires that you improve the network infrastructure in the on-site location, and that you have people on site capable of carrying out the recommendations of the telepresent experts. This means that you have an incentive to get your locals to upgrade their networks and their personal skills.

So you have all this bandwidth in use eight hours a day while the experts provide their talent... but the rest of the time, you’ve got all that network capacity going idle, and a bunch of locals who are going to be in the same “let’s explore this nifty new technology” mindset that we’ve all experienced.

It won’t be long before they discover eBay and find some ways to make a little money, and start purchasing outdated used computing hardware, far behind the times for the first world cutting edge, but perfectly adequate for dragging a society into the information age. (Though they’ll still need to get more fundamental basics like food distribution, sanitation, and electricity supply working before anything serious can happen. But it’s in the area of getting those working that these experts will be needed.) Opportunities for education suddenly grow, and for bypassing any communications barriers imposed by the current regime.

Empowering individual entrepeneurs will create more demand for a stable business climate, which will generate more opposition to the terrorists. Overall, a win for sense and stability.

I’m hoping that the people installing networking equipment in Iraq and Saudi Arabia encourage web surfing after working hours.