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A post on Salon.com’s How the World Works blog points out that Lloyd’s of London’s 360 Risk Project has released a report Climate Change: Adapt or Bust [PDF]. I think that this is going to have more impact than An Inconvenient Truth:
It is ... clear that, so far, the industry has not taken changing catastrophe trends seriously enough. Climate change is likely to bring us all an even more uncertain future. If we do not take action now to understand the risks and their impact, the changing climate could kill us.The What’s Next section on page 19 (p12 on the PDF) is particularly interesting:
Insurers need to consider the impact that an unstable climate could have on global asset values, which may generate a mismatch against insurance liabilities. Asset values tend to react to new information as soon as it is known, and adjust accordingly even if the effects are likely to take effect some time in the future.I think people controlling large quantities of money are about to start taking global warming and international relations seriously.
- Insurers rely on returns from assets to boost financial performance. If these returns reduce, whether gradually or suddenly, then insurer profits will be lower. Consequently, it will become even more important for insurers to price risk according to exposure, and to underwrite for profit, without reliance on investment income.
- The global financial services industry holds a significant proportion of the world’s financial assets. Insurance industry participants can therefore make a difference by using their influence as investors to encourage “climate proof” behaviour from the boards of large corporations.
- In addition to economic disruption from unstable climate, political unrest may result from competition for water and other resources, forcing demographic changes. Policies in respect of political and terrorism risks should be reviewed regularly to ensure the level of risk is within appetite.
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Date: 2006-06-10 09:35 am (UTC)Anyway, one can hope, but I have a nasty feeling that it will take a great deal more effort to get the politicos to think in anything other than the short term, with old-fashioned solutions. Especially given how unsuccessful we've been at weaning ourselves away from oil imports.
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Date: 2006-06-10 04:57 pm (UTC)